Forest fires are always dangerous, but certain factors have a strong influence on forest fire severity. In order to develop an effective method of forest fire prevention, we must understand how these factors influence a forest fire. We therefore consider two variables: the amount of biofuel available and the speed at which the fire spreads, or the probability that the fire will spread. This is why campfires are often prohibited in forested areas when there has been too little rain. To analyze how these factors influence forest fires, we created a model in which a fire is started at one location on a grid with a random distribution of burnable biomass and is allowed to spread with a certain probability. We then analyze how the amount of biomass in each cell and the probability that the fire spreads affects the shape of the fire.movie Locke 2014

Samuel Cieszynski, ’19

Menomonie, WI

Mathematics & Statistics

Sponsor: Tyler Skorczewski